Appendix 2, Cabinet
What it recommends
- “1 . The council should continue its discussions on the potential need for EFS given the reintroduction of external borrowing from 2025 and continued service pressures.”
- “The council needs to look at what further early action it can take on savings to reduce reliance on reserves.”
- “The council should continually re-assess its risk appetite and triggers for decision making on divestment, business cases and further savings plans.”
- “The council should maintain its focus on the minimum operating model and potentially reassess its core offer to set out sustainable service levels within available resources.”
- “The council should strengthen its data and analytics capability in Children’s Services, moving away from fragmented systems and spreadsheets towards integrated forecasting tools.”
- “The council should consider applying the CIPFA Data Management Model to assess data governance, quality.”
What the meeting decided
We couldn’t match this item in the minutes; they record what was decided.
In plain English
Recommended · This went to the meeting on Tue 11 Nov 2025. What was decided is in that meeting's minutes.
The council has delivered over £140 million of savings since 2010, but faces a projected deficit of £36 million in 2026/27 and £54.6 million in 2027/28, which risks using up its remaining unallocated reserves. p12
Reserves are forecast to fall from £119 million in March 2024 to £69 million in March 2026, a 42% reduction in two years. p43p70
The review recommends that the council consider the need for Exceptional Financial Support, take further action on savings, strengthen data and analytics in Children's Services, address workforce recruitment and retention, and develop a partnership position with the NHS and district and borough councils. p30p31p34p38p39
The review states that the council has strong governance, respected financial leadership and prudent treasury management, but faces mounting pressure from structural cost pressures in demand-led services including adult and children's social care, home to school transport and the Dedicated Schools Grant high needs block. p26p20
Show the 10 passages this is based on
- p12A challenging position The council has delivered over £140m of savings since 2010, demonstrating sustained financial discipline and the willingness to take some tough and politically unattractive decisions. However, the council is now falling below its ‘Core Offer’ and with a projected deficit of £36m in 2026/27 and £54.6m in 2027/28 which risk exhaustion of the remaining unallocated reserves.
- p20Despite this, the council faces significant structural funding challenges, particularly within demand-led services including Adults, Children’s, Home to School Transport (HTST), and High Needs block. Market volatility in placement costs remains a material financial risk, with potential £1m+ swings in individual cases. The Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG) High Needs deficit presents a serious medium-term threat to the General Fund if the statutory override is removed in 2027/28, while overall reserves are projected to fall by 42% by March 2026 with further significant in year overspends likely. The current forecast also indicates a renewed need for external borrowing by 2025.
- p26Overall, the council benefits from strong governance, respected financial leadership, and prudent treasury management. These provide a solid platform to address the significant financial risks. However, the scale of structural underfunding in demand-led services, coupled with declining reserves, rising placement costs, and future borrowing needs, places the council under mounting pressure. There are also operational risks in delivering new core systems such as Oracle Payroll and HR where benefits realisation will require close monitoring.
- p30Recommendation 1 . The council should continue its discussions on the potential need for EFS given the reintroduction of external borrowing from 2025 and continued service pressures.
- p312. The council needs to look at what further early action it can take on savings to reduce reliance on reserves.
- p345. The council should strengthen its data and analytics capability in Children’s Services, moving away from fragmented systems and spreadsheets towards integrated forecasting tools.
- p389. The council should increase its focus on workforce recruitment and retention exploring market supplements or targeted career pathways to address competitiveness.
- p3910. The council should develop a refreshed partnership position with the NHS, districts and borough councils to reflect the significant challenge it is facing and the consideration of EFS.
- p43· Sharp depletion of reserves, forecast to fall from £119m (Mar-24) to £69m (Mar-26) a 42% reduction in two years.
- p70The council is currently drawing down reserves to balance in-year pressures. Reserves are forecast to fall from £119m in March 2024 to £69m by March 2026 — a 42% reduction in just two years. Whilst this is necessary in the short-term, it is not sustainable.