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Appendix 5 CSD - 29.09.2026

Committee report · Cabinet · Tue 29 Sep 2026 · East Sussex County Council · agenda item 5

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Recommended · Officers have advised a course of action. Members decide.

Officers have recommended new 2026/27 targets for children's social care performance measures, including referral and assessment rates and the number of children subject to a Child Protection Plan. p4p5

It also reports a cumulative Dedicated Schools Grant deficit of £19.845m as of 31 March 2026, with the statutory override that protects councils from this deficit extended to March 2028. p16p17

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  • p4Referrals and Assessments (ref ii and ref iii) Demand for Children's Social Care remains high, reflecting increasing complexity in the needs of children and families. However, the continued development of earlier help and intervention services is helping ensure that families receive support at the most appropriate level. In Q1 the rate of social care referrals reduced slightly. Our Multi Agency Safeguarding Hub (MASH) maintains robust processes and quality assurance to ensure that decision making remains consistent and thresholds are applied appropriately. Target setting for the Council Plan measures on referrals and assessments was deferred so that the outturns for 2025/26 from benchmarking information could be taken into account. It is recommended that the target for ‘Rate (of 0-17 population) of referrals to children’s social care services (per 10,000 children)’ is set at ≤538. It is recommended that the target for the ‘Rate (of 0-17 population) of assessments started by children’s social care services (per 10,000 children) is set at ≤557. These have been informed by modelling of the expected rates for an area like East Sussex based on local levels of deprivation. This is done using the Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI).
  • p5Children Subject to a Child Protection Plan (ref i) At the end of Q1, 513 children were subject to a Child Protection Plan, representing a rate of 50.0 per 10,000 children. This continues the positive trend seen over the last two years, with the rate reducing by more than 20% since Q1 2024/25. The reduction reflects sustained investment in early intervention and family support services, enabling concerns to be addressed before risk escalates. The input of SWIFT, who deliver specialist assessments and support, together with Connected Families interventions, the Family Help pilot and strengthened step-down arrangements from Child Protection Plans to Children in Need support have all contributed to this positive position. Whilst the overall number of children subject to a Child Protection Plan has reduced, safeguarding vulnerable children remains a key priority and robust oversight continues through regular multi-agency review and quality assurance arrangements. Target setting for the ‘Rate of children with a Child Protection Plan (per 10,000 children)’ was deferred so that the outturn for 2025/26 could be taken into account. We are aiming to reduce the rate of children with a Child Protection Plan to the IDACI expected rate of 44.0 by 2027/28. It is recommended that a target of 48.7 is set for 2026/27, which represents a realistically achievable reduction on the 2025/26 outturn of 49.9.
  • p16The Council has little control over Home to School Transport spend as this is a statutory demand-driven area primarily driven by growth in SEND pupil numbers and increasing transport costs which requires national change to impact the spend. Due to these pressures, there is a forecast overspend of £2.860m. The later section of this report outlines measures the Council is taking to control this overspend where possible. Due to the increased forecast of £2.682m in income secured from NHS Sussex in 2026/27 to jointly fund specialist placements for a small number of Children We Care For with very complex needs, Children’s Services spend overall is forecast to be almost to budget for this year. This is a significant increase in health income from previous years (£0.225m in 2024/25 and £1.565m in 2025/26). This income is linked to specific young people and must be secured through continued close partnership working with the NHS. Funding is not always secured for multiple financial years, so it cannot be relied upon when setting the budget. Therefore, this income is volatile and if this income changes, or there is an increase in the number of children in care with complex needs requiring high-cost placements, then the underspend in this area of the Children’s Services budget will no longer be able to cover the overspend in Home to School Transport. Not included in the figures reported above is the position of the Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG), which, in accordance with the Schools and Early Years Finance (England) Regulations 2020, is required by local authorities to be shown on their balance sheets. As of 31 March 2026, East Sussex has a cumulative deficit of £19.845m. The Council is unusual in having only moved into a deficit position in the last financial year, as most local authorities have been accumulating significant deficits for multiple years now.
  • p17The future of the DSG is uncertain as it is linked to the approval and implementation of the SEND reform plan, however, there continues to be significant ongoing pressure related to costs of provision for children with EHCPs. The statutory override has been extended until March 2028, at which point any deficit will then be offset against useable council reserves. Home to School Transport The HTST service continues to face significant demand and cost pressures, primarily driven by growth in SEND pupil numbers and increasing transport costs. This has resulted in a forecast overspend of £2.860m. The forecasts are calculated based on an extrapolated model of current and previous pupils being transported, with inflationary figures added for cost and a forecast for the number of pupils. The drive behind increasing transport costs is external and uncontrollable. The costs of transporting pupils with SEND remains the principal pressure, accounting for approximately 76% of hired transport expenditure. Transport for those accessing Alternative Provision, particularly associated with East Sussex Academy have increased significantly in 2026/27. Solo SEND routes (one pupil being transported on their own) have increased during Q1 as route requirements become more complex. Fuel costs are also impacted negatively due to uncontrollable, external factors. There will continue to be an increase in transport costs due to the recently announced SEND reforms as families will continue to apply for EHCPs prior to full implementation of the SEND reforms in 2029/30. Q4 2025/26 saw a 50% increase in the number of EHCP applications, and around 34% of the resulting increase in EHCP numbers will end up on transport. At the time of budget-setting, the SEND reforms had not been announced, and the number of EHCP applications was steadier. Mitigation work is underway to stabilise transport arrangements and reduce future costs.

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